What a time it is to support Duke. fresh basketball trainer fresh football mentor. Athletic director is a recent hire. In addition, conference realignment, which will completely alter modern college athletics as early as 2024, is the proverbial elephant in the room.
So where does Duke fit into the overall realignment picture? And how much actual weight can men’s basketball, its torch-bearer brand, carry? We’ll start with that in this week’s mailbag; as always, thanks for the submissions. From there, we can narrow the focus:
How concerned about realignment should Duke supporters be? There isn’t much to be done, but if you read the tea leaves, Duke is more likely to end up on the outside looking in (of the two mega conferences) when everything is said and done.
In addition to the potential financial loss, I would hate to miss out on so many rivalry games. What have you heard or felt about Duke’s position? — Jose C.
Jose, it was you who said it. Yet you’re correct. The current state of conference realignment does not favour the Blue Devils.
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Without going into too much detail, this most recent round of realignment is all about television revenue and was sparked by Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC and USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten.
The SEC and Big Ten currently lead every other major conference in that regard, and the difference is not particularly small. According to financial disclosure documents, each SEC member school received an average distribution from ESPN for the 2020–21 fiscal year of $54.6 million.
FOX distributed an average of $46.1 million to Big Ten members during the same time period. Then there is the ACC, whose member schools received an average distribution of only $36.1 million, despite the conference experiencing record revenue as a result of Notre Dame’s temporary, COVID-19-induced membership.
Even though I’m not a math pro, I know that it probably isn’t good for business to be $10–18 million per year behind your conference competitors.
And that’s just the shortfall until the SEC and Big Ten sign their lucrative media deals in 2024. According to projections given to The Athletic, those two superconferences may pay their member schools annual distributions that are double (or even triple) what the ACC does within the next ten years.
NFL Games
The obvious cause of the disparity is the football prowess of each league (or lack thereof). NFL games are at the top of the list of live TV events that draw sizable audiences in the modern media landscape, but college football isn’t far behind. So it comes as no surprise that networks pay a fortune for that inventory.
Fans of Duke will inquire, “But what about men’s basketball.” The sad fact is that in the larger world of college sports, even a men’s basketball brand as valuable as Duke’s doesn’t compare. According to tax documents, Duke basketball brought in about $22.5 million during the 2020–21 fiscal year, more than half of which ($12.5 million) Mike Krzyzewski received in salary and deferred payments. However, this is nothing compared to even mediocre college football programmes. For information:
The football programme at Duke’s rival North Carolina brought in about $44.4 million during the same fiscal year (2020–21). Undoubtedly, Duke men’s basketball is and has always been a more popular and successful programme than UNC football. Nevertheless, it nearly doubled in terms of revenue. Because of this, football is king, putting Duke in a dangerous situation.
Additionally, they are not incompatible; you can have success without a crazed audience (hello, Wake Forest), just as you can have bad teams with a rabid fan base (looking at you, Washington State). The best programmes include both. Duke, sadly, possesses neither.
No ACC school played in fewer games between 2015 and 2021 with over one million viewers than Duke, according to my colleague Andy Staples.
(As a point of comparison, Clemson topped that list with 34 of these contests, so you can get a sense of how far apart the two programmes are in terms of numbers.) It is fair to say that Duke’s football team, which has a 10-25 record over the last three seasons, is the least valuable in the ACC.
Nina King, the athletic director, is taking the right steps and allocating funds to make improvements, but it won’t happen overnight. That’s bad news because the SEC or Big Ten will only be interested in recruiting schools that offer greater value than their anticipated annual media rights distribution during conference realignment.
In an ideal world, Duke’s men’s basketball team would persuade a conference to add a member, but not if that prospective member had a net-negative football record. Unfortunately, the basketball side of things is doomed to failure as long as football continues to lag so far behind.
What Occurs with Duke in Light of Everything Said?
Most likely nothing for the time being. The ACC has granted rights to each member school through 2036, so those rights are essentially locked up until then. It’s the only thing, without a doubt, keeping the conference together. But because the alternative isn’t ideal, it’s also in Duke’s best interest that things stay that way.
For evidence, one only needs to look at the Pac-12; USC and UCLA were considered valuable enough to be poached, which was fantastic for them. However, observe the Pac-12 schools that are still standing, from Oregon and Washington to Oregon State and Cal.
They find themselves in a precarious situation, suddenly missing their two most lucrative league partners, and unsure of what to do next.
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Last Words
Do they attempt to rebuild their conference by bringing in new teams, none of whom have the reputation of UCLA or USC?
Or, if that’s even possible, see the writing on the wall and leave for greener pastures? Reconsider that scenario, but this time substitute “Clemson and UNC” for “USC and UCLA” and then replace the leftovers with the ACC’s. Duke definitely does not want to be there.
